Climate change

Report of the thematic expert group:
An adaption research program for climate change – a strategic research initiative for Finland and Sweden

Description of the theme and its relevance

The mankind has embarked upon a course of changing the composition of the atmosphere in a manner that, if continued, the safety and well-being of the mankind and ecosystems are severely threatened (IPCC AR4, 2007, see www.ipcc.ch). Global warming is projected to add 1-6 C to the global mean temperature during this century. The changing climate is already shifting the traditional four seasons in the North. Indeed, both Finland and Sweden are experiencing negative and positive aspects of warming. The future seems now increasingly risky, as projected impacts generally intensify with warming, and negative impacts will eventually dominate even in our region. The greatest risks are involved with non-linear processes that may initiate if climate changes pass so-called tipping-points.

Even a global warming of 2 C - such is considered as the maximum allowable amount by the EU, must be considered to be with some danger as it would lead to several negative impacts (Swedish Scientific Council on Climate Issues, 2007). Worsened food security in developing countries, where local production would be negatively impacted is another example, as is the increasing risk to the build-up infrastructure in case of changes in flooding and droughts. It also is possible that the Greenland ice sheet might be driven to a melting phase, leading to very large the sea level rises.

Adaptation needs are broadly common for Finland and Sweden with our similarities in climate, environment and society. Both countries already focus heavily on mitigation which is necessary to deal with climate risk. Our initiative, however, brings forth the other necessary action, i.e. adaptation. As adaptation has a strong regional and local character, it is well suited for a joint undertaking of the two countries.

The potential capability to adapt is good in Finland and Sweden due to their economic development and high level of scientific and technical skills. This capacity may also be used, to support other, especially developing countries’ adaptation efforts. Both Finland and Sweden conduct research in support of adaptation especially concerning sectors most significantly affected. We propose a new way of bridging across the Finnish and Swedish strategies and research efforts. This involves learning by sharing research and development needs that are not addressed by either country as well as avoiding duplication of activities throughout the program.

Goals and objectives
The principal goal of the adaptation program is to generate scientific advice and research-based methods to help prepare the societies for socio-economic and ecological risks, evident on the basis of the global and regional climate scenarios and impact studies. Focus is on specific themes that serve joint interests.
Hazardous climate or weather related impacts are normally realized during extreme conditions or events. Climate change will, in addition to the successive changes in mean conditions and variability, alter the nature and frequency of the extreme conditions.

Accordingly, the objectives of the adaptation research initiative are to

- develop a set of analytical methods for defining specific impacts
o due to extreme weather conditions (e.g. heavy rainfall and floods)
o due to multiple effects of changing environmental parameters (e.g. temperature and moisture co-affecting the structures of buildings)

- develop methods and tools to be used in regional adaptation strategies by
o narrowing down the uncertainties of model based environmental data
o identifying vulnerabilities in various regions and sectors
o strengthening local awareness and involvement in adaptation planning
- propose concrete actions towards adaptation in selected thematic areas
o most relevant sectors (to be jointly developed later), e.g.
? the Baltic Sea; technical infrastructure; tourism;
? global socio-economic impacts reaching Finland and Sweden
? climate-proofing development cooperation
? decision-making on different levels of administration

- promote joint learning in current adaptation strategies, policies and practices
? academic
? customer based
- develop tools for and promote science-policy dialogue in adaptation
- consider business opportunities for the industry

The Baltic Sea dimension is essential because this regional sea is vulnerable to both climate change and land use change in surrounding areas. The proximity of Finland and Sweden to the Arctic Ocean and the Russian taiga and tundra with their new economical possibilities suggests the inclusion of Arctic aspects into the program. The vulnerability of these areas to exploitation, emerging new technologies and infrastructures is itself a topic to be considered.

1. Proposed actions
The proposed action is a multi-disciplinary initiative dealing with research and development efforts, providing answers and solutions to where to adapt, how to adapt, when to adapt and adapt to what. Thus, there is a scientific, technological and socio-economic dimension, in this order.
After the agreement of the proposal to be included into the main 1809 Program, Finnish and Swedish officials from relevant adaptation strategies and adaptation research programs will jointly analyze unaddressed and new research needs, as well as research that is not yet effectively shared, in both countries in order to further define areas for mutually beneficial and cost efficient research. Relevant background work to facilitate these analyses already exists. In Finland, two recent reports: ‘Evaluation and comparison of climate change mitigation and adaptation actions’ by the Advisory Board of Sectoral Research and the ‘Mid-term-evaluation of the national research Programme on adaptation to climate change’ present research needs in adaptation. In Sweden, the Commission on Climate and Vulnerability made a comprehensive analysis of adaptation needs on various sectors. The findings and recommendations of the Commission were published in 2007. Recommendations on research to underline adaptation were considered in the Research and Innovation Bill in 2008 (Prop. 2008/09:50). Other recommendations bearing on an adaptation strategy are to be considered in the Climate Bill that is expected in early 2009.

A second seminar will be held after the funding has been secured. At this stage, a multidisciplinary research seminar will further deepen and broaden the discussion on selected topic areas. A call will be prepared after the second seminar. The relevant ministries would be the owners of the program, scaling and arranging the pooled resources.

The first phase of the ensuing adaptation program is estimated to last five years in minimum, but preferably up to 10 years, with a mid-term scientific evaluation. A rough estimate of the resources needed is 2 million euro/year.

2. Prerequisites of the implementation (financing, organizations, etc.)
A natural prerequisite for the new program, in order to provide sustainable solutions, is that it must be holistic. It must cover the whole problem, suggest solutions and scrutinize the influence and feasibility of the suggested solutions. This would be the new innovative feature of the program. Finland and Sweden could be the forerunners in preparing for the future.

The adaptation problem cannot be a one-time project as climate change will continue over the current century and beyond. The practical scope should cover at least 50 years, and yet have a vision for next 100 years. The external situation will change as we observe and learn more about the earth-atmosphere system, we get better tools to project into the future and possibly the scenarios for the future mankind converge to fewer plausible realizations. Accordingly, the basic funding must be secured to have a continuous and stable level. This means that the adaptation program is given a higher priority than in the past.

The funding is aimed to strategically supplement existing adaptation research in both countries by focusing on elements which benefit for both countries’ adaptation actions. Another key aim is to give a major boost for mutual learning and cooperation among adaptation actors in Finland and Sweden. Further, reaching the critical mass of expertise and interdisciplinarity is essential.